* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 50 52 55 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 50 52 55 58 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 27 26 25 24 25 27 30 35 39 44 46 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 14 16 16 15 8 6 5 9 9 15 12 18 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 11 11 13 11 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 170 177 170 176 172 160 173 164 177 163 193 181 210 221 241 247 255 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 128 127 127 128 128 128 129 129 133 136 141 142 145 146 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 122 118 118 116 115 117 119 120 125 128 132 131 131 130 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 62 60 58 58 58 54 51 49 48 48 51 54 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 46 38 40 32 49 60 62 61 43 37 27 23 13 -1 -15 -26 200 MB DIV 71 54 53 65 60 30 13 13 -6 30 28 49 23 26 -8 15 -8 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 1 0 1 -1 3 -2 2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1520 1490 1474 1457 1438 1402 1377 1393 1406 1459 1369 1296 1087 916 828 785 767 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.6 17.1 18.1 18.9 20.1 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.2 44.2 45.0 45.6 46.6 47.1 47.6 48.4 49.6 51.4 53.5 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 7 6 3 2 4 7 8 11 12 13 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 14 15 19 25 24 24 25 34 31 38 40 34 40 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 25. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 42.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.2% 8.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/28/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 50 52 55 58 61 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 40 43 48 50 53 56 59 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 23 26 30 36 39 44 46 49 52 55 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT