* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 33 39 43 49 52 58 62 65 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 33 39 43 49 52 58 62 65 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 19 21 24 28 33 38 43 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 10 14 13 18 10 9 3 7 5 10 9 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 14 13 15 14 7 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 120 159 157 162 178 159 156 173 147 151 156 204 178 219 186 231 213 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 128 127 127 128 129 130 130 131 135 136 141 144 143 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 122 119 116 115 116 119 121 123 128 129 133 134 132 138 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 63 59 57 55 54 50 50 49 49 49 49 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 11 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 49 45 39 41 43 59 62 73 50 46 39 34 19 14 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 73 70 58 63 69 43 26 8 2 21 25 30 19 12 27 1 6 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 0 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1554 1506 1484 1459 1441 1399 1367 1347 1354 1382 1405 1305 1194 972 824 735 746 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.9 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.2 43.3 44.3 45.1 46.3 46.9 47.3 47.8 48.7 50.2 52.2 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 10 8 4 2 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 19 15 16 25 25 23 22 25 38 32 38 40 31 30 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. -14. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 29. 32. 38. 42. 45. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.7 41.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/28/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 33 39 43 49 52 58 62 65 72 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 20 23 27 32 38 42 48 51 57 61 64 71 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 20 24 29 35 39 45 48 54 58 61 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT