* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 36 40 42 44 44 47 49 46 43 40 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 38 39 43 39 41 40 44 45 43 40 37 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 33 33 33 33 32 31 30 30 32 33 32 34 36 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 31 27 23 20 34 30 35 32 37 30 33 8 17 11 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 0 4 5 -1 5 0 6 9 -6 1 0 4 -2 10 SHEAR DIR 238 223 250 242 225 245 249 252 253 244 227 236 234 257 287 290 286 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.8 25.6 23.9 23.2 21.7 21.3 22.2 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 111 121 132 137 141 129 124 124 112 98 93 84 84 91 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 98 108 118 125 130 119 113 110 98 87 81 74 75 83 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -56.1 -55.6 -55.3 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 60 60 56 54 55 60 52 46 40 47 47 48 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 17 20 20 22 24 25 27 31 34 31 29 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 97 93 67 53 72 78 85 39 61 47 69 70 71 63 63 54 51 200 MB DIV 95 63 22 -1 77 40 38 55 109 98 90 16 49 21 73 15 -1 700-850 TADV 11 0 10 8 5 10 11 12 17 11 4 0 0 -1 14 25 47 LAND (KM) -28 18 64 128 193 230 83 90 451 448 542 759 832 829 740 671 489 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 8 12 15 17 17 15 14 13 11 7 11 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 11 33 18 12 11 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -28. -30. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 16. 18. 14. 10. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 17. 19. 16. 13. 10. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 87.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 0.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 35 38 39 43 39 41 40 44 45 43 40 37 35 36 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 35 39 35 37 36 40 41 39 36 33 31 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 31 35 31 33 32 36 37 35 32 29 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 28 24 26 25 29 30 28 25 22 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT