* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 34 37 37 35 35 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 34 37 37 31 33 32 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 31 30 29 24 27 25 23 21 19 18 17 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 25 30 31 26 37 35 42 37 45 40 29 29 34 48 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 2 2 1 4 -1 3 -1 0 0 -1 0 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 261 261 240 237 252 250 251 249 257 252 253 256 259 271 263 262 260 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 28.0 27.8 29.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 25.1 23.2 22.2 23.3 20.8 6.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 118 117 121 137 135 156 126 122 122 109 96 90 95 85 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 106 103 102 108 124 123 145 114 109 107 97 86 80 84 77 65 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -55.4 -56.5 -57.1 -57.5 -58.0 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 69 65 64 60 58 56 51 47 43 41 41 47 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 16 16 14 17 17 17 19 21 18 17 14 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 87 83 97 103 79 68 74 74 18 35 22 36 -2 -19 -57 -13 -2 200 MB DIV 40 42 86 70 20 67 50 46 38 92 30 -49 -7 23 33 56 30 700-850 TADV 8 10 8 8 12 15 13 12 13 11 4 0 -13 0 13 31 37 LAND (KM) 40 23 31 36 47 146 223 -46 252 448 445 585 683 655 663 631 433 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 6 10 12 16 17 14 15 18 18 15 16 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 5 5 7 46 7 23 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -16. -23. -30. -35. -38. -43. -46. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 7. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 86.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 34 37 37 31 33 32 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 31 34 34 28 30 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 29 29 23 25 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 22 22 16 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT