* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 36 34 36 31 30 24 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 36 34 36 31 30 24 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 25 26 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 27 25 31 30 35 34 39 35 40 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 3 -1 2 1 3 1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 258 258 239 235 253 243 260 251 271 257 256 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.5 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.8 27.0 26.0 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 122 120 120 129 138 137 132 124 126 115 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 108 105 105 116 126 126 121 112 112 102 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 73 72 71 69 65 63 58 57 53 45 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 16 15 18 15 16 14 16 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 90 85 99 102 72 70 43 36 -1 19 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 39 43 90 61 8 61 27 -1 20 31 -6 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 9 8 7 13 7 12 6 7 2 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 65 70 47 41 41 94 147 111 43 381 470 536 727 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 3 7 12 14 16 16 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 9 8 7 17 35 9 13 4 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -43. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 4. 0. 1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 6. 1. 0. -6. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 86.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/02/22 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 36 36 34 36 31 30 24 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 33 31 33 28 27 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 27 29 24 23 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT