* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 30 32 31 30 28 32 28 25 20 19 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 30 32 31 30 28 32 28 25 20 19 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 27 24 24 30 26 32 27 34 31 34 30 29 30 30 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 2 3 2 4 0 6 0 0 -1 -3 -12 -10 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 245 253 253 241 242 242 259 265 274 284 295 312 322 315 307 324 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.7 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.3 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 124 118 118 131 137 139 141 130 117 116 117 116 117 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 116 110 105 104 117 123 127 130 122 109 106 104 104 104 98 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 72 66 65 61 61 55 55 56 60 59 51 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 16 15 17 17 17 17 21 20 18 17 17 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 77 94 85 85 99 90 70 58 69 54 47 7 2 19 22 4 -36 200 MB DIV 99 100 50 41 74 45 26 46 46 22 50 62 19 26 32 -1 -9 700-850 TADV 11 7 8 7 6 9 10 17 15 20 25 22 19 4 7 7 24 LAND (KM) 1 16 20 12 5 31 136 78 85 119 345 590 691 779 966 1175 1439 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.3 25.2 25.7 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.3 87.2 87.2 87.0 86.6 86.0 84.7 82.6 80.0 76.8 72.9 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 4 6 8 12 13 17 17 14 10 12 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 14 9 4 5 25 59 28 50 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 5. 3. 0. -3. -3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 7. 3. -0. -5. -6. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 87.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.0% 5.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.2% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 30 32 31 30 28 32 28 25 20 19 21 21 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 28 30 29 28 26 30 26 23 18 17 19 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 24 26 25 24 22 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 16 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT