* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 06/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 33 34 33 34 30 26 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 33 34 33 34 30 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 25 23 21 19 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 24 27 25 32 29 31 30 34 28 33 36 35 36 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 5 3 1 5 -1 3 0 4 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 279 265 253 252 240 221 228 216 238 241 253 240 265 268 276 265 292 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 27.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.8 26.2 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 125 120 123 135 135 133 141 140 127 115 111 114 114 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 120 115 112 108 109 120 118 118 126 126 114 103 98 99 97 98 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 80 76 73 71 68 63 62 56 55 54 58 62 65 65 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 15 16 14 15 13 12 8 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 86 83 80 83 43 70 62 72 44 38 8 3 10 35 22 200 MB DIV 92 84 70 28 38 55 23 71 28 27 16 26 15 8 22 13 -3 700-850 TADV 13 13 4 8 5 0 3 1 3 -1 0 -6 6 10 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 16 38 51 55 24 76 189 198 217 84 30 274 531 759 833 867 916 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.0 24.7 25.2 25.8 26.6 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.1 86.9 86.8 86.7 86.4 86.1 85.2 84.0 82.0 79.9 77.3 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 5 7 6 8 10 12 12 11 9 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 14 11 6 12 37 32 8 16 50 10 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -25. -29. -34. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -4. -9. -11. -16. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 5. 1. -5. -6. -13. -14. -19. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 87.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 06/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.9% 5.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 7.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 06/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 06/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 33 34 33 34 30 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 30 29 30 26 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 25 24 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT