* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 08/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 36 43 47 51 50 53 51 48 52 53 54 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 31 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 11 10 18 26 25 24 10 11 5 4 3 6 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -4 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 285 273 318 335 352 16 60 56 76 80 81 127 84 49 23 54 49 SST (C) 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.9 28.3 29.0 29.3 27.9 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 172 171 171 168 140 150 155 133 125 123 124 123 123 123 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 166 165 162 153 124 130 133 114 108 105 105 104 104 104 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 11 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 64 65 63 64 64 63 66 66 68 68 68 67 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 6 3 3 2 5 4 2 3 2 1 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -41 -44 -42 -40 -27 -7 22 40 41 31 16 12 11 -4 9 1 200 MB DIV 22 12 24 -11 -60 0 2 41 8 39 28 23 6 6 -15 14 -11 700-850 TADV 2 3 -1 4 2 6 1 -8 0 -6 3 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 221 205 146 123 61 -72 -212 -331 -447 -482 -416 -374 -320 -277 -209 -130 -51 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.5 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.2 98.5 99.6 100.7 101.9 103.0 104.2 105.0 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 68 62 58 36 15 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 18. 22. 26. 25. 28. 26. 23. 27. 28. 29. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.4 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 26.1% 15.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 27.0% 55.9% 55.7% 42.5% 18.1% 32.8% 21.2% 18.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 9.2% 14.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 12.7% 30.4% 28.6% 18.0% 6.5% 11.3% 10.2% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 08/19/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 32 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 23 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT