* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 08/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 39 42 43 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 13 13 15 18 32 21 28 10 9 4 7 3 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 -3 0 -6 -2 -3 0 -5 -3 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 291 292 285 323 345 357 42 49 53 93 61 111 11 36 23 37 21 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.4 29.6 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.0 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 171 172 171 162 147 155 156 150 124 122 123 123 124 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 161 167 164 146 129 133 134 128 107 103 104 103 105 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 10 9 14 11 15 11 14 10 12 10 12 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 63 64 65 66 64 65 64 66 66 67 65 65 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -52 -45 -47 -45 -41 -22 10 46 39 31 15 9 7 4 -2 15 200 MB DIV 23 15 0 12 -18 -57 0 28 30 12 39 16 15 6 -18 7 -6 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 3 5 2 3 -1 -4 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 115 214 253 208 174 61 -97 -207 -307 -414 -530 -512 -467 -417 -341 -253 -128 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.7 94.4 95.2 95.9 97.2 98.5 99.4 100.5 101.6 102.8 103.6 104.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 41 69 67 74 30 12 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 92.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.2% 9.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 53.3% 46.7% 36.2% 18.2% 29.9% 19.8% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 3.1% Consensus: 7.0% 24.9% 19.5% 14.8% 6.1% 10.1% 9.5% 8.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 08/19/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT