* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 08/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 21 25 32 31 33 31 33 36 40 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 21 25 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 14 19 18 25 31 31 25 7 12 8 13 20 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 303 309 301 326 353 11 42 44 69 54 79 291 323 316 346 347 SST (C) 30.4 29.9 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 167 160 166 172 171 153 155 158 157 157 156 155 155 152 130 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 157 149 155 163 159 136 134 134 132 133 130 127 126 127 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 12 10 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 64 62 64 61 65 63 64 63 64 63 64 63 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 4 6 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -70 -58 -51 -44 -31 -24 5 25 38 29 21 5 9 26 23 42 200 MB DIV 10 31 10 0 13 -36 -14 6 57 16 45 22 32 4 -7 -12 15 700-850 TADV 8 5 4 5 4 5 9 5 -3 1 0 2 0 1 -4 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 24 122 194 286 290 194 27 -119 -188 -263 -322 -378 -379 -400 -408 -473 -460 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.8 23.4 24.7 25.8 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.1 92.9 93.6 94.4 95.9 97.4 98.5 99.3 100.1 100.7 101.3 101.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 4 3 4 2 1 0 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 26 25 49 63 69 23 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 44. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -3. -8. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 11. 13. 11. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.0 91.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 21.1% 14.9% 9.1% 2.8% 12.5% 9.1% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 7.3% 5.1% 3.0% 1.0% 4.2% 3.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 08/19/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 20 21 25 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 25 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 29 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT