* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 08/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 29 35 38 38 38 39 42 44 46 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 25 25 25 26 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 13 12 13 18 19 30 28 29 11 17 6 7 8 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -4 0 -6 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 285 305 321 305 337 342 30 36 51 71 49 115 353 344 6 9 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 29.6 29.4 29.8 30.4 29.8 28.6 29.3 29.4 29.2 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 162 158 166 172 166 145 155 156 152 125 122 123 123 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 165 152 149 156 167 151 128 133 133 129 107 103 103 103 104 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 12 9 14 11 15 11 15 10 13 10 13 10 11 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 65 65 65 65 62 63 60 63 66 68 67 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -60 -62 -59 -47 -46 -35 -22 -3 44 27 24 4 8 2 0 -3 200 MB DIV 9 15 31 9 2 3 -31 -5 21 13 1 34 16 19 -3 -14 -6 700-850 TADV 7 7 5 4 5 9 8 5 1 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) -49 11 67 155 246 187 72 -89 -223 -316 -402 -507 -563 -518 -475 -408 -319 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.6 92.4 93.1 93.9 95.5 97.1 98.5 99.6 100.6 101.5 102.6 103.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 5 5 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 38 23 24 56 69 35 14 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 15. 18. 18. 18. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.2 91.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 23.8% 16.7% 7.9% 2.5% 13.9% 16.3% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 8.2% 5.7% 2.6% 0.8% 4.6% 5.4% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 08/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 08/19/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 34 28 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 30 24 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT