* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 08/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 43 44 46 44 49 50 52 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 28 30 35 42 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 28 29 30 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 12 9 12 15 21 27 28 27 16 18 10 12 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 0 -5 -5 -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 251 242 282 295 305 312 339 357 45 51 71 65 93 94 95 103 97 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.6 29.2 29.4 30.3 30.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 162 155 158 171 171 140 146 150 128 125 123 124 124 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 163 153 146 149 165 162 126 128 131 111 108 106 106 105 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 11 10 12 12 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 63 64 64 63 65 66 64 65 64 69 68 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -45 -52 -52 -50 -37 -37 -32 -17 14 44 50 40 33 11 19 1 200 MB DIV 10 18 22 23 5 19 -33 -3 1 59 11 37 7 26 9 11 -6 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 4 4 6 4 5 2 -6 -1 -5 1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) -113 -67 -22 56 149 187 113 -51 -188 -339 -476 -438 -364 -297 -236 -141 -67 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.7 24.0 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.4 92.2 93.0 93.7 95.2 96.7 98.3 99.5 100.9 102.2 103.6 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 17 26 19 27 66 54 15 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 41. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 24. 26. 24. 29. 30. 32. 32. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.7 90.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 08/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 17.9% 10.0% 6.8% 2.7% 20.7% 37.5% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 1.0% 6.3% 3.4% 2.3% 0.9% 6.9% 12.5% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 08/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 08/18/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 28 30 35 42 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 24 26 31 38 35 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 22 27 34 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT