* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032022 07/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 39 39 40 39 39 40 41 49 41 32 31 27 25 V (KT) LAND 35 33 35 31 34 34 35 34 34 35 36 44 36 27 26 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 35 31 34 35 35 35 34 34 36 38 36 34 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 19 16 17 21 17 33 32 33 31 35 32 31 24 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 5 0 1 -4 -4 2 2 -3 2 -7 -4 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 333 340 333 329 331 316 313 332 343 324 303 288 284 276 275 263 293 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 25.5 25.1 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.0 21.1 15.8 14.0 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 127 124 124 124 111 108 96 97 97 98 96 87 73 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 108 105 103 104 106 96 95 86 87 88 89 87 80 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.4 -56.7 -56.8 -57.2 -58.4 -58.9 -58.9 -59.6 -58.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 64 62 60 43 39 40 46 59 70 71 57 49 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 7 11 14 22 19 13 12 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR -98 -71 -52 -55 -55 -26 -31 -62 -77 -106 -110 -39 1 17 -13 -53 -94 200 MB DIV 17 13 17 4 -10 20 -4 -35 -20 -9 7 67 34 31 26 34 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 7 5 3 15 13 4 6 14 13 9 49 10 47 44 30 LAND (KM) -17 -21 1 -3 28 118 400 675 872 1002 1103 1006 985 1077 1271 1506 1099 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.4 35.3 35.7 35.9 35.8 36.0 36.7 38.0 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.3 78.7 77.9 77.1 74.5 71.3 67.6 63.3 59.0 54.4 49.7 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 9 13 14 17 17 18 19 21 22 24 21 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 7 4 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -31. -34. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 5. 8. 19. 12. 4. 1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 14. 6. -3. -4. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.0 79.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032022 COLIN 07/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.6% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032022 COLIN 07/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032022 COLIN 07/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 35 31 34 34 35 34 34 35 36 44 36 27 26 22 20 18HR AGO 35 34 36 32 35 35 36 35 35 36 37 45 37 28 27 23 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 27 30 30 31 30 30 31 32 40 32 23 22 18 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 28 29 28 28 29 30 38 30 21 20 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT