* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 07/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 38 37 37 35 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 32 32 31 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 31 32 32 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 22 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 17 15 16 20 20 34 40 41 38 46 32 31 19 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 4 -5 2 -3 -3 -4 0 -8 -8 -12 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 309 330 339 343 334 336 317 331 360 355 346 352 334 317 285 291 312 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.5 22.9 23.3 21.6 17.5 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 132 127 126 127 118 114 111 108 105 99 96 99 91 76 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 109 105 104 107 100 96 95 93 93 90 89 92 83 71 67 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -56.7 -57.2 -58.3 -57.4 -57.3 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 7 7 4 5 3 4 5 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 66 63 66 53 43 44 48 55 60 55 56 59 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -102 -75 -55 -52 -48 -26 -69 -104 -111 -82 -33 -36 -23 -32 -67 -56 200 MB DIV 29 2 10 16 13 6 12 -77 -56 -54 9 12 53 64 -14 12 -7 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 8 6 8 0 6 9 12 17 31 6 16 19 25 23 LAND (KM) 5 -16 -11 22 44 71 180 333 525 719 859 947 1012 869 1034 1375 1648 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.8 33.1 33.3 33.5 34.1 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.7 35.2 36.1 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.1 79.5 78.9 78.2 76.7 74.3 72.3 70.1 67.9 64.6 60.0 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 9 9 9 9 11 16 22 26 29 28 19 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 10 6 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -12. -19. -25. -30. -37. -39. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -20. -19. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.4 80.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.3% 6.4% 6.2% 4.1% 6.6% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 9.4% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 07/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 32 32 31 31 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 34 34 33 33 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 31 30 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT