* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022022 07/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 39 45 51 61 69 75 81 91 96 99 103 103 104 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 40 42 49 55 65 73 79 85 95 100 103 107 107 108 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 33 34 38 43 50 60 68 74 76 76 74 74 73 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 5 4 3 7 13 15 19 20 18 17 9 4 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 4 5 3 4 0 -2 0 -4 -3 0 1 3 0 8 SHEAR DIR 47 111 111 131 69 137 47 56 40 33 44 37 25 11 334 211 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 124 133 142 150 159 160 152 139 138 138 138 139 136 140 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 127 123 132 142 150 159 160 152 135 132 131 132 134 131 133 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 6 5 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 72 75 78 77 79 81 78 75 74 68 67 59 56 52 50 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 12 13 14 17 20 21 21 24 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 75 86 79 67 61 43 25 25 22 31 25 50 62 64 69 69 70 200 MB DIV 18 52 74 60 80 96 48 96 78 39 56 37 -17 -3 0 -16 -7 700-850 TADV 5 9 9 8 7 5 3 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) -8 79 166 181 214 260 247 243 292 341 450 590 728 761 860 954 1102 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.4 13.5 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 87.0 88.3 89.4 90.5 93.4 96.5 99.4 102.5 105.2 107.5 109.5 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 13 15 15 15 15 12 10 10 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 3 4 11 19 17 14 8 8 8 8 7 6 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 7. 5. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 26. 34. 40. 46. 56. 61. 64. 68. 68. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 85.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.3% 8.3% 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 16.0% 6.3% 5.0% 6.2% 13.1% 25.4% 32.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.6% Consensus: 1.9% 10.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.1% 7.8% 8.5% 11.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 40 42 49 55 65 73 79 85 95 100 103 107 107 108 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 45 51 61 69 75 81 91 96 99 103 103 104 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 41 47 57 65 71 77 87 92 95 99 99 100 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 40 50 58 64 70 80 85 88 92 92 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT