* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 53 61 68 72 77 80 84 87 90 92 95 93 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 53 61 68 72 77 80 84 87 90 92 95 93 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 60 66 69 70 71 73 74 76 78 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 6 2 4 6 5 5 10 10 8 9 11 7 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 2 1 2 2 -1 1 -2 -2 0 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 30 3 355 316 274 247 243 232 217 228 223 197 198 198 225 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 149 146 143 143 144 137 140 140 140 143 146 146 150 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 150 149 146 143 142 141 133 134 134 134 135 136 137 141 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 67 66 64 60 60 57 56 52 51 51 51 52 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 20 21 23 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 14 13 7 -6 -25 -33 -43 -31 -19 -14 -22 -22 -30 -27 -17 200 MB DIV -9 24 11 7 8 31 46 69 28 66 84 53 16 18 70 43 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 4 4 3 -2 1 1 6 4 6 2 5 6 3 LAND (KM) 1630 1571 1525 1507 1505 1316 1198 1137 1077 1057 1077 1109 1020 952 928 854 638 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 28 25 16 22 19 23 23 40 46 55 44 40 44 56 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 42. 47. 50. 54. 57. 60. 62. 65. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 33.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.4% 10.9% 9.4% 6.9% 11.2% 12.1% 23.4% Logistic: 4.4% 28.3% 16.5% 8.2% 4.4% 24.8% 28.7% 34.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 25.1% 6.6% 0.7% 0.2% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% Consensus: 3.7% 23.6% 11.3% 6.1% 3.8% 13.5% 14.9% 20.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/22/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 45 53 61 68 72 77 80 84 87 90 92 95 93 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 49 57 64 68 73 76 80 83 86 88 91 89 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 43 51 58 62 67 70 74 77 80 82 85 83 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 40 47 51 56 59 63 66 69 71 74 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT