* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 63 73 81 81 87 89 92 94 95 95 96 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 63 73 81 81 87 89 92 94 95 95 96 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 50 61 72 79 79 79 77 77 77 77 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 5 5 7 10 4 10 4 12 7 11 7 13 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 3 4 0 2 0 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 77 40 352 10 353 321 312 256 258 244 259 272 265 272 230 216 249 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 153 151 148 142 143 140 137 141 138 138 141 144 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 154 153 151 148 142 143 136 133 136 129 130 135 138 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 71 68 63 61 59 58 54 52 52 53 52 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 14 17 20 19 22 22 24 25 26 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 17 13 16 6 -13 -27 -42 -41 -29 -24 -30 -32 -36 -28 -38 200 MB DIV -23 -11 18 14 15 42 43 90 89 88 73 68 42 51 33 76 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 2 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 5 7 7 8 9 LAND (KM) 1614 1648 1595 1523 1467 1464 1355 1208 1215 1163 1088 1092 1166 1138 1083 1001 942 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 13 12 14 11 9 10 10 6 7 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 22 28 28 16 17 18 18 20 40 44 52 40 36 55 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 12. 11. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 33. 43. 51. 51. 57. 59. 62. 64. 65. 65. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 31.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 17.7% 10.9% 9.1% 6.8% 11.0% 12.1% 25.5% Logistic: 6.2% 35.0% 24.5% 10.8% 5.5% 26.7% 33.1% 47.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 23.1% 7.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.9% 5.1% 20.7% Consensus: 4.2% 25.3% 14.2% 7.0% 4.2% 13.9% 16.8% 31.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 22.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/22/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 52 63 73 81 81 87 89 92 94 95 95 96 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 48 59 69 77 77 83 85 88 90 91 91 92 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 42 53 63 71 71 77 79 82 84 85 85 86 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 43 53 61 61 67 69 72 74 75 75 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT