* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 42 52 62 71 76 79 86 91 93 94 96 99 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 42 52 62 71 76 79 86 91 93 94 96 99 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 50 56 61 65 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 8 4 3 3 4 10 6 6 3 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 6 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 90 69 16 6 307 282 275 256 290 260 264 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 153 153 151 150 144 142 144 137 140 141 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 151 153 153 151 150 144 142 142 131 135 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 68 70 68 66 62 61 58 54 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 14 16 17 17 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 5 10 10 7 -5 -27 -38 -45 -44 -32 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -38 -19 12 8 32 61 65 63 50 61 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 1 4 5 6 3 5 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1544 1653 1585 1521 1469 1442 1316 1166 1091 1028 987 968 1008 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 23 33 33 17 21 20 27 24 37 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 27. 37. 46. 51. 54. 61. 66. 68. 69. 71. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 30.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.4% 7.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 17.5% 10.0% 4.5% 2.7% 17.7% 34.2% 56.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.7% 4.5% Consensus: 2.1% 12.8% 6.4% 3.9% 0.9% 6.3% 15.3% 20.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/22/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 33 42 52 62 71 76 79 86 91 93 94 96 99 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 31 40 50 60 69 74 77 84 89 91 92 94 97 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 36 46 56 65 70 73 80 85 87 88 90 93 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 38 48 57 62 65 72 77 79 80 82 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT