* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 40 50 60 68 74 76 80 82 85 86 87 91 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 40 50 60 68 74 76 80 82 85 86 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 55 62 64 64 63 62 62 62 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 9 5 2 5 5 8 5 13 12 17 15 13 12 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -2 3 -1 0 1 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 91 94 76 14 12 299 307 319 277 264 271 272 254 233 230 219 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 149 152 154 155 146 146 143 147 138 141 139 147 146 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 149 152 154 155 146 146 143 147 134 137 135 143 141 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 70 71 70 71 65 63 57 58 54 53 52 53 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 12 12 14 13 14 14 16 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 0 1 7 13 6 -9 -25 -48 -55 -46 -37 -42 -38 -42 -28 200 MB DIV -34 -30 -30 -13 4 3 51 58 112 51 38 49 63 34 37 29 80 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 0 -1 4 0 0 3 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 1426 1544 1642 1562 1491 1391 1371 1236 1119 1049 1017 994 990 951 868 817 729 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.6 10.3 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.5 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.7 31.8 33.0 34.2 36.8 39.5 41.9 44.0 46.0 47.7 49.5 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 16 24 38 24 12 37 23 32 25 50 41 55 49 55 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 15. 25. 35. 43. 49. 51. 55. 57. 61. 61. 62. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 29.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.7% 6.9% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 12.7% 6.3% 2.5% 1.8% 14.6% 39.4% 62.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 8.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 6.9% Consensus: 1.5% 10.2% 4.8% 3.0% 0.6% 5.1% 16.4% 23.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/22/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 31 40 50 60 68 74 76 80 82 85 86 87 91 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 39 49 59 67 73 75 79 81 84 85 86 90 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 35 45 55 63 69 71 75 77 80 81 82 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 37 47 55 61 63 67 69 72 73 74 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT