* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 46 53 59 64 67 71 73 75 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 46 53 59 64 67 71 73 75 75 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 37 44 52 58 62 64 64 61 58 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 6 4 3 4 6 5 6 9 14 14 18 11 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 -2 -1 -6 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 79 95 94 53 357 316 301 291 289 300 272 279 254 241 235 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 146 149 152 153 154 143 144 142 142 134 136 136 142 139 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 146 149 152 153 154 143 144 142 140 129 130 130 135 131 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 68 69 70 71 69 68 63 60 56 56 54 54 53 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -7 0 4 9 13 3 -13 -34 -54 -48 -41 -38 -38 -35 -40 200 MB DIV -23 -23 -29 -14 -10 -3 31 66 85 103 18 33 55 47 54 33 32 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 0 0 1 4 6 4 1 4 2 0 1 8 7 9 LAND (KM) 1312 1429 1549 1623 1539 1411 1367 1349 1204 1130 1102 1094 1088 1092 1132 1100 1102 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.6 30.7 31.8 32.9 35.3 37.8 40.2 42.5 44.3 46.0 47.5 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 8 9 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 17 25 40 18 11 32 22 25 22 39 44 56 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 21. 28. 34. 39. 42. 46. 48. 50. 50. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 28.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.3% 8.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 22.6% 12.6% 4.8% 4.0% 17.5% 42.7% 66.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% 15.4% Consensus: 2.3% 14.2% 7.1% 4.0% 1.3% 6.0% 18.2% 27.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/21/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 37 46 53 59 64 67 71 73 75 75 76 77 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 44 51 57 62 65 69 71 73 73 74 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 40 47 53 58 61 65 67 69 69 70 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 40 46 51 54 58 60 62 62 63 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT