* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 36 45 54 61 67 71 75 77 79 78 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 36 45 54 61 67 71 75 77 79 78 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 42 52 62 70 75 75 71 67 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 13 8 1 3 5 9 6 9 9 18 15 20 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -3 0 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 77 77 86 97 111 67 2 41 342 356 304 300 278 269 255 239 228 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 147 150 155 154 151 144 141 143 136 134 132 138 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 144 147 150 155 154 151 144 141 142 133 128 125 131 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 69 70 72 69 68 63 61 58 59 57 55 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -17 -10 -1 11 18 14 0 -22 -40 -48 -40 -40 -35 -28 -36 200 MB DIV 16 -17 -31 -26 -12 17 23 88 115 123 62 40 39 60 44 50 38 700-850 TADV 7 4 2 1 1 0 1 4 4 3 6 5 3 0 7 9 10 LAND (KM) 1206 1344 1461 1583 1602 1441 1336 1329 1299 1191 1154 1166 1174 1214 1271 1270 1294 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.6 9.0 9.8 10.9 12.1 13.4 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.8 29.9 31.0 32.0 34.2 36.5 38.8 40.9 42.9 44.7 46.2 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 14 19 40 24 14 15 27 21 19 23 26 41 41 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 29. 36. 42. 46. 50. 52. 54. 53. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 27.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.0% 7.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 18.8% 9.5% 3.2% 2.8% 13.3% 36.4% 67.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 6.8% Consensus: 2.4% 12.9% 6.0% 3.3% 0.9% 4.6% 15.9% 24.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 36 45 54 61 67 71 75 77 79 78 79 80 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 35 44 53 60 66 70 74 76 78 77 78 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 31 40 49 56 62 66 70 72 74 73 74 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 33 42 49 55 59 63 65 67 66 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT