* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 50 59 66 72 76 78 79 78 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 50 59 66 72 76 78 79 78 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 46 56 67 76 79 76 72 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 13 11 5 6 6 3 9 6 8 12 10 14 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -3 -2 1 0 0 4 -2 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 79 83 82 95 112 117 157 109 37 31 4 301 266 265 243 258 264 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 142 141 143 150 150 144 138 145 136 132 129 129 127 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 142 141 143 150 150 144 138 145 135 129 124 122 119 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 67 68 67 68 72 71 66 66 63 61 59 61 56 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -20 -17 -9 10 20 23 13 -10 -37 -44 -35 -39 -27 -25 -16 200 MB DIV 17 22 -15 -16 4 26 23 70 127 162 91 23 40 47 48 48 6 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 4 2 -1 0 2 3 4 7 9 6 2 5 9 5 LAND (KM) 1070 1237 1376 1507 1617 1496 1343 1266 1272 1224 1191 1216 1255 1292 1378 1485 1582 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.8 9.8 11.0 12.5 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.9 29.2 30.4 31.4 33.5 35.7 37.9 39.9 41.7 43.0 44.3 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 12 11 12 30 31 13 10 35 22 13 14 25 28 21 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 400 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 25. 34. 41. 47. 51. 53. 54. 53. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 26.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.2% 9.1% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 27.6% 15.9% 7.6% 6.6% 21.7% 37.9% 69.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 30.1% Consensus: 3.2% 17.2% 8.6% 5.1% 2.2% 7.4% 16.8% 33.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 50 59 66 72 76 78 79 78 78 81 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 41 48 57 64 70 74 76 77 76 76 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 44 53 60 66 70 72 73 72 72 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 36 45 52 58 62 64 65 64 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT