* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 48 57 64 70 76 82 86 87 88 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 48 57 64 70 76 82 86 87 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 36 42 50 60 69 77 81 83 83 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 17 13 10 8 5 5 13 15 9 4 4 7 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 3 2 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 95 89 93 96 113 148 167 127 98 41 41 28 46 294 320 306 288 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 143 146 152 150 146 140 134 135 132 130 127 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 143 143 143 146 152 150 146 140 131 132 127 124 120 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 75 70 71 69 72 71 66 64 59 60 59 58 60 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -25 -24 -24 -17 7 25 31 25 4 -21 -29 -35 -27 -17 -12 -13 200 MB DIV 53 14 21 -20 -12 18 43 50 98 81 87 34 52 20 21 9 53 700-850 TADV 10 7 5 4 3 0 0 1 2 4 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 913 1090 1240 1370 1493 1525 1358 1224 1203 1258 1339 1361 1404 1454 1528 1605 1709 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.8 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.7 26.4 27.8 29.0 30.1 32.2 34.1 36.1 37.8 39.3 40.2 40.8 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 15 13 13 23 39 26 14 10 9 13 12 9 10 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 39. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 32. 39. 45. 51. 57. 61. 62. 63. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 24.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.6% 8.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 20.3% 10.9% 5.5% 4.3% 17.5% 37.7% 69.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 6.6% 16.6% Consensus: 2.7% 13.4% 6.7% 4.2% 1.4% 6.0% 17.9% 28.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 48 57 64 70 76 82 86 87 88 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 40 46 55 62 68 74 80 84 85 86 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 36 42 51 58 64 70 76 80 81 82 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 35 44 51 57 63 69 73 74 75 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT