* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/20/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 58 64 70 77 82 86 86 88 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 58 64 70 77 82 86 86 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 44 52 62 72 81 84 81 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 16 15 15 10 5 4 2 3 5 7 5 3 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 0 0 1 2 -1 0 4 0 -1 3 3 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 70 95 93 99 100 135 152 165 142 64 26 40 301 278 253 292 267 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 143 144 144 147 150 150 143 136 135 134 131 130 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 142 143 144 144 147 150 150 143 136 132 129 124 122 116 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 72 72 73 73 70 64 63 57 59 56 60 61 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -15 -19 -17 -15 0 18 26 26 12 -10 -25 -36 -34 -25 -29 -25 200 MB DIV 60 63 16 16 4 6 19 28 74 76 93 78 39 14 21 8 7 700-850 TADV 7 11 8 5 5 2 0 0 2 4 6 5 6 5 5 6 9 LAND (KM) 735 899 1060 1201 1329 1556 1444 1290 1220 1253 1341 1364 1364 1384 1416 1486 1546 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.1 7.5 7.1 7.4 8.2 9.3 10.6 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 24.4 25.9 27.2 28.4 30.4 32.2 34.1 36.2 38.0 39.5 40.7 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 19 16 15 19 35 44 25 13 9 12 14 10 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 26. 33. 39. 45. 52. 57. 61. 61. 63. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 22.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/20/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.2% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 36.6% 22.3% 14.7% 12.7% 27.2% 52.5% 76.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 21.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.5% 5.4% 30.2% Consensus: 5.1% 24.8% 11.6% 7.8% 4.3% 9.6% 22.8% 35.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/20/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 58 64 70 77 82 86 86 88 89 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 42 48 55 61 67 74 79 83 83 85 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 37 43 50 56 62 69 74 78 78 80 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 29 35 42 48 54 61 66 70 70 72 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT