* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/20/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 51 56 63 71 80 86 88 92 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 51 56 63 71 80 86 88 92 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 40 42 47 54 64 76 86 89 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 14 14 13 15 12 10 6 5 6 8 2 1 3 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 1 0 3 3 1 0 0 2 2 -2 0 3 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 52 80 88 80 80 119 156 187 155 139 53 51 66 311 285 329 283 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 144 143 144 144 146 151 152 147 143 145 143 134 133 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 144 143 144 144 146 151 152 147 143 145 142 131 127 123 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 72 75 76 72 70 69 61 59 57 60 61 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -34 -29 -35 -34 -20 2 17 31 27 8 -12 -26 -22 -28 -32 -33 200 MB DIV 57 39 27 -5 1 3 6 28 25 64 73 73 20 46 34 27 13 700-850 TADV 12 13 13 10 11 11 1 0 2 4 4 4 5 6 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 548 700 866 1024 1173 1446 1533 1339 1203 1164 1198 1227 1179 1166 1193 1253 1319 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.2 7.5 7.2 7.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 29.6 31.8 33.9 36.1 38.1 39.8 41.2 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 28 25 20 17 14 24 40 26 14 13 18 41 18 14 13 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 38. 41. 42. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 26. 31. 38. 46. 55. 61. 63. 67. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 21.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/20/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.8% 10.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 39.4% 23.3% 11.3% 10.4% 32.6% 55.9% 81.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 22.9% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 11.8% 64.3% Consensus: 6.3% 26.3% 12.2% 6.6% 3.6% 11.8% 26.1% 48.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/20/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 51 56 63 71 80 86 88 92 93 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 37 42 48 53 60 68 77 83 85 89 90 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 32 37 43 48 55 63 72 78 80 84 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 30 36 41 48 56 65 71 73 77 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT