* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 09/20/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 49 57 63 70 77 86 92 95 95 94 95 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 49 57 63 70 77 86 92 95 95 94 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 42 48 55 63 69 75 78 75 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 17 18 14 10 5 6 5 7 6 3 9 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 0 -2 0 3 3 0 2 2 1 0 0 2 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 46 66 78 75 75 115 108 229 301 338 335 308 255 237 241 254 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 147 147 145 148 144 146 146 145 143 142 136 130 123 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 147 147 145 148 144 146 146 145 143 142 134 126 116 114 112 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 79 76 74 75 76 74 69 69 60 60 59 60 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 9 11 11 13 14 16 16 16 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -32 -32 -30 -36 -28 -11 20 34 38 22 -7 -21 -25 -26 -24 -16 200 MB DIV 46 48 40 29 3 -11 2 32 46 83 70 62 -7 9 24 14 4 700-850 TADV 12 8 9 11 9 6 4 0 2 5 7 6 6 6 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 406 539 696 850 1007 1284 1539 1451 1273 1181 1204 1297 1350 1352 1376 1405 1449 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.8 8.9 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.3 20.9 22.5 24.0 25.5 28.1 30.4 32.5 34.6 36.7 38.3 39.6 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 11 10 8 8 8 8 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 28 26 21 17 16 30 40 18 13 11 11 13 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 24. 32. 38. 45. 52. 61. 67. 70. 70. 69. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 19.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 09/20/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.5% 9.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 31.8% 19.0% 12.8% 12.1% 24.7% 32.1% 66.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 27.7% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 2.8% 63.3% Consensus: 5.4% 24.7% 10.3% 6.9% 4.1% 9.0% 14.8% 43.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 09/20/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 40 49 57 63 70 77 86 92 95 95 94 95 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 46 54 60 67 74 83 89 92 92 91 92 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 41 49 55 62 69 78 84 87 87 86 87 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 40 46 53 60 69 75 78 78 77 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT