* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 39 47 54 59 62 62 64 62 59 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 39 47 54 59 62 62 64 62 59 60 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 39 44 47 47 46 43 39 36 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 12 13 8 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 27 9 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 2 2 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 99 96 84 73 76 75 90 175 221 217 242 254 253 266 272 41 54 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 128 131 134 134 125 123 118 117 116 114 113 113 120 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 127 128 131 133 130 118 114 109 109 109 107 104 102 109 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 66 63 64 59 59 57 56 57 56 56 59 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 80 74 75 71 73 40 7 0 -24 -36 -42 -51 -58 -77 -133 -176 200 MB DIV 59 51 23 5 -3 -17 0 2 10 -7 -26 17 22 20 -23 -28 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -6 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 3 6 8 15 11 16 21 LAND (KM) 966 1068 1159 1251 1344 1481 1608 1695 1741 1804 1913 2104 2195 2291 2392 2413 2335 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.9 11.3 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.4 17.6 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 30.7 32.2 33.2 33.7 34.3 35.3 37.0 38.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 11 10 9 6 5 6 8 11 11 11 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 37. 39. 37. 34. 35. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.3 24.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.9% 7.4% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 25.0% 13.0% 3.5% 2.9% 12.1% 26.5% 29.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 5.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 3.4% 1.5% Consensus: 3.4% 13.8% 7.2% 3.2% 1.0% 4.2% 13.0% 10.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 31 33 39 47 54 59 62 62 64 62 59 60 63 64 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 30 36 44 51 56 59 59 61 59 56 57 60 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 38 45 50 53 53 55 53 50 51 54 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 38 43 46 46 48 46 43 44 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT