* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 59 63 66 69 69 67 63 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 59 63 66 69 69 67 63 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 44 49 52 53 51 47 41 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 10 14 20 8 3 4 5 11 18 23 35 41 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 0 4 -2 -2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 88 95 73 69 64 80 114 110 206 193 241 270 272 266 261 261 318 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 128 128 127 130 134 136 127 123 122 119 118 115 113 114 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 128 128 127 130 131 130 118 115 114 113 112 107 104 104 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 72 70 69 65 63 61 62 60 58 56 55 53 52 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 63 60 58 54 36 11 -7 -22 -35 -41 -45 -49 -58 -87 -133 200 MB DIV 28 38 56 47 27 -11 -8 3 -6 -9 -7 -23 13 14 13 -4 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 1 6 10 15 17 17 17 LAND (KM) 876 965 1050 1121 1194 1324 1416 1514 1577 1657 1772 1954 2057 2062 2140 2255 2444 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.9 10.3 11.7 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.8 30.2 31.4 32.1 32.9 34.0 35.7 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 9 7 5 6 7 10 11 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 4 4 6 7 9 6 9 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. 44. 42. 38. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.6 23.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.2% 8.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.3% 4.3% 0.6% 0.4% 3.7% 10.9% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.9% 4.3% 2.4% 0.1% 1.4% 6.8% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/24/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 59 63 66 69 69 67 63 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 43 51 57 61 64 67 67 65 61 60 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 46 52 56 59 62 62 60 56 55 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 38 44 48 51 54 54 52 48 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT