* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 09/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 39 37 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 39 37 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 11 12 9 12 24 30 35 47 54 53 46 39 25 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 9 7 5 7 5 4 4 3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 29 20 20 26 24 338 284 268 260 246 243 235 234 226 218 211 204 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 137 136 135 137 135 132 125 121 123 118 122 127 131 129 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 131 137 136 135 137 133 127 117 109 111 106 111 115 118 115 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 68 66 67 64 62 63 66 67 65 64 61 57 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 33 40 48 50 40 30 29 5 0 -24 -40 -53 -72 -111 -105 200 MB DIV 3 33 36 26 44 49 5 14 30 46 16 37 -8 5 12 10 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -9 -9 -11 -6 6 12 6 0 2 4 4 20 15 14 18 LAND (KM) 1068 1158 1294 1443 1590 1834 1912 1895 1919 1968 2049 2179 2340 2499 2374 2141 1979 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.8 14.3 16.0 17.5 18.7 19.8 21.2 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.5 28.9 30.4 31.9 34.9 37.2 38.9 40.3 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 5 7 8 10 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 8 7 12 20 15 5 4 7 3 4 10 10 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 12. 8. 2. -4. -9. -14. -13. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 26.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 09/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 16.0% 11.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.8% 3.3% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.9% 4.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.6% 4.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 09/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 39 37 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 29 32 36 38 36 32 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 29 33 35 33 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 22 26 28 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT