* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 07/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 50 49 49 50 51 49 48 46 43 41 40 42 42 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 50 43 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 50 52 53 53 32 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 8 10 3 13 22 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 272 298 270 283 289 232 231 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.0 25.9 24.5 24.3 22.0 16.0 14.8 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 123 112 101 100 88 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 101 94 86 86 78 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 5 7 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 63 65 68 71 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 12 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 -7 -3 5 52 57 67 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 18 24 -2 26 27 72 30 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 -2 10 21 10 66 16 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 80 109 153 130 106 -10 -46 -183 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 14 18 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 74.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.2% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 5.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.3% 5.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 07/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 07/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 49 50 43 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 45 38 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 32 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT