* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 09/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 40 44 46 49 46 45 43 43 44 45 47 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 40 44 46 49 46 45 43 43 44 45 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 42 39 37 36 35 35 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 10 9 3 10 21 19 22 20 19 18 18 18 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 10 7 2 3 2 -2 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 43 28 36 50 48 357 237 253 268 268 272 274 274 253 247 239 239 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 139 129 121 118 118 118 118 118 118 120 121 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 141 140 137 125 113 108 104 102 103 104 105 108 110 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 63 62 61 60 59 58 55 51 46 45 44 46 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 11 10 8 8 6 7 5 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 65 61 53 34 9 -23 -29 -39 -39 -51 -53 -34 -3 2 21 200 MB DIV 93 76 92 85 84 52 48 5 -22 -47 -17 -21 -19 -13 -11 4 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 9 12 7 5 3 0 0 -4 -7 -8 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1159 1191 1226 1267 1316 1464 1611 1650 1649 1658 1720 1813 1927 2056 2209 2081 1894 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.3 12.1 13.0 14.0 16.1 18.2 19.9 21.2 21.7 21.9 21.7 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 27.9 28.5 29.1 29.7 31.1 32.2 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.6 34.5 35.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 10 8 4 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 16 16 20 12 9 2 4 5 4 2 2 4 12 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 16. 15. 13. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 27.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 09/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.9% 9.4% 7.4% 5.3% 9.9% 11.3% 13.5% Logistic: 4.6% 15.4% 7.3% 4.1% 1.8% 9.0% 5.9% 3.4% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.6% 5.7% 0.5% 0.2% 3.4% 11.3% 0.3% Consensus: 3.5% 13.6% 7.5% 4.0% 2.4% 7.4% 9.5% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 09/19/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 36 40 44 46 49 46 45 43 43 44 45 47 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 37 41 43 46 43 42 40 40 41 42 44 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 37 39 42 39 38 36 36 37 38 40 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 29 31 34 31 30 28 28 29 30 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT