* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 09/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 52 57 57 54 52 51 50 47 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 52 57 57 54 52 51 50 47 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 37 41 44 44 42 39 37 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 18 17 16 11 9 5 9 15 23 23 25 24 30 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 3 2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 -6 -3 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 36 32 29 35 61 62 22 293 273 269 269 285 280 281 272 280 271 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 145 142 141 135 125 119 116 115 116 113 115 116 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 146 144 141 139 131 117 110 104 101 101 98 100 101 102 100 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 67 69 70 70 66 62 62 58 54 49 48 47 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 50 51 55 35 21 -6 -28 -37 -29 -45 -52 -58 -59 -65 -64 200 MB DIV 106 94 101 120 137 109 72 63 8 -25 -42 -5 -19 -22 5 -5 -24 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -4 -3 2 4 8 6 6 8 11 3 -1 -8 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 1135 1177 1216 1240 1246 1283 1375 1470 1485 1435 1441 1472 1491 1491 1483 1472 1433 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.5 13.3 15.4 17.4 19.2 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.3 30.3 31.0 31.1 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 9 9 6 4 4 1 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 17 17 18 17 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 27. 32. 32. 29. 27. 26. 25. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 26.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 09/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.0% 9.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 27.1% 11.8% 4.7% 3.0% 6.9% 7.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 7.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 8.4% 4.4% Consensus: 4.1% 16.6% 7.6% 3.9% 1.0% 2.8% 8.9% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 09/18/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 52 57 57 54 52 51 50 47 47 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 49 54 54 51 49 48 47 44 44 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 45 50 50 47 45 44 43 40 40 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 37 42 42 39 37 36 35 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT