* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 09/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 53 58 60 58 57 55 52 48 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 53 58 60 58 57 55 52 48 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 36 40 45 46 45 42 38 34 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 16 20 22 19 9 5 4 11 16 24 27 32 34 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -5 0 0 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 60 52 48 49 89 75 105 256 263 250 264 266 263 244 262 262 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 146 144 142 134 125 119 117 116 115 113 114 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 144 145 145 141 138 127 117 108 104 104 102 100 102 103 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 69 67 71 71 72 64 61 59 56 53 55 55 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 60 54 55 42 29 28 -5 -14 -24 -19 -27 -22 -9 0 1 200 MB DIV 85 117 108 89 88 115 62 74 5 -6 -17 7 -20 4 0 2 2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 1 3 7 5 8 7 9 7 2 0 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1080 1128 1146 1163 1179 1168 1230 1322 1437 1493 1521 1610 1700 1765 1806 1864 1873 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 12.3 14.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 19.5 19.8 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.9 29.8 30.7 31.1 31.5 32.4 33.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 9 9 6 3 5 4 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 22 23 19 22 18 15 7 5 3 1 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 19. 28. 33. 35. 33. 32. 30. 27. 23. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 26.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 09/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.3% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 26.8% 12.5% 3.6% 2.2% 5.6% 6.5% 4.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 9.0% 7.8% Consensus: 4.2% 15.8% 7.8% 3.5% 0.8% 2.3% 8.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 09/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 53 58 60 58 57 55 52 48 45 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 34 41 50 55 57 55 54 52 49 45 42 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 36 45 50 52 50 49 47 44 40 37 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 38 43 45 43 42 40 37 33 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT