* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 09/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 41 51 58 61 60 59 57 55 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 41 51 58 61 60 59 57 55 53 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 34 38 44 49 50 48 46 43 41 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 15 17 17 8 2 4 9 13 21 19 20 21 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -6 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 61 73 73 69 59 85 110 100 266 252 244 255 277 281 288 276 295 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 148 146 144 143 129 117 115 112 112 113 112 111 113 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 143 146 144 142 140 124 109 105 100 98 100 98 100 103 107 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 72 70 71 70 65 61 59 55 54 49 48 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 57 58 60 55 32 27 -2 -26 -36 -32 -40 -61 -58 -29 -19 200 MB DIV 63 69 89 69 74 91 87 92 36 17 -10 -15 -7 -24 -15 -27 -8 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 5 6 8 3 3 2 0 -3 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 976 1027 1051 1056 1074 1101 1168 1301 1451 1526 1520 1556 1628 1711 1787 1912 2073 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.5 12.1 13.8 15.7 17.5 19.2 20.3 21.0 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.5 27.3 28.3 29.6 30.8 31.5 31.6 32.0 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 6 7 10 11 11 10 8 4 3 4 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 23 25 23 20 14 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 16. 26. 33. 36. 35. 34. 32. 30. 28. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 25.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 09/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.6% 7.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 10.8% 3.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% 5.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 14.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 8.2% 3.3% Consensus: 2.6% 12.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.1% 1.5% 7.9% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 09/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 35 41 51 58 61 60 59 57 55 53 53 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 33 39 49 56 59 58 57 55 53 51 51 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 34 44 51 54 53 52 50 48 46 46 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 37 44 47 46 45 43 41 39 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT