* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 54 54 56 58 55 44 40 34 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 54 54 56 58 55 44 40 34 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 42 45 49 47 44 42 42 42 41 43 47 52 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 16 19 34 42 36 28 19 36 34 21 23 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 2 4 2 0 0 -2 0 -3 -7 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 275 272 262 232 217 205 211 211 227 279 308 259 253 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.4 24.6 22.3 20.2 18.5 16.2 14.2 13.4 11.9 11.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 128 128 122 107 92 81 75 72 71 72 70 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 107 111 114 111 96 82 73 68 67 68 69 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -57.7 -57.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 41 41 43 48 49 43 47 52 54 55 62 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 12 14 15 13 13 15 16 17 13 12 11 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 17 32 34 32 42 74 76 -9 -6 -16 62 64 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 22 49 61 37 64 26 21 22 22 60 62 -25 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 4 13 14 8 -6 5 12 7 26 15 8 3 24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1612 1599 1571 1545 1534 1566 1649 1753 1683 1481 1318 1127 1082 1140 1224 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 34.0 35.7 38.4 41.6 44.5 46.9 49.3 52.7 57.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.8 50.1 49.1 47.8 46.0 41.4 36.4 32.3 30.0 29.2 28.5 26.9 25.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 18 23 24 20 14 11 15 22 27 24 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 4 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -8. -11. -17. -23. -27. -34. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 24. 24. 26. 28. 25. 14. 10. 4. 1. -2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.3 50.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 14.4% 10.7% 3.6% 0.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.0% 5.8% 1.2% 0.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 46 52 54 54 56 58 55 44 40 34 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 47 49 49 51 53 50 39 35 29 26 23 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 40 42 42 44 46 43 32 28 22 19 16 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 32 32 34 36 33 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT