* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 47 52 54 51 47 42 41 32 39 35 28 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 47 52 54 51 47 42 41 32 39 35 28 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 39 41 40 36 33 33 36 39 47 52 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 15 19 29 40 42 39 27 25 29 21 34 23 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 2 4 0 0 0 3 0 -2 3 -8 -8 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 265 267 265 254 228 210 207 214 225 233 264 278 283 286 311 324 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.3 23.7 21.6 18.9 16.0 14.4 13.7 12.6 9.5 10.4 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 126 126 126 122 100 88 77 72 71 72 71 68 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 109 108 109 113 111 91 79 71 67 67 69 69 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.6 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -57.1 -58.1 -59.8 -59.8 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 42 43 43 42 46 52 50 43 44 45 50 57 56 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 13 15 15 15 13 12 10 11 7 16 14 11 5 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -7 13 18 30 28 38 74 86 52 1 -63 -22 52 41 -41 -31 200 MB DIV -9 11 18 23 29 55 49 45 17 34 6 10 61 14 30 58 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 12 13 3 0 17 18 21 24 3 -2 36 18 71 LAND (KM) 1605 1608 1592 1561 1553 1526 1572 1659 1729 1594 1412 1227 1067 1071 990 545 133 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.2 34.5 36.5 39.6 43.0 46.1 49.0 52.2 56.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.6 51.2 50.6 49.7 48.4 44.8 40.0 35.1 31.7 30.2 29.7 28.3 26.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 10 13 19 25 23 19 15 15 19 26 26 24 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 9 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 16. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. -1. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -37. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -2. -8. 3. -0. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 27. 29. 26. 22. 17. 16. 7. 14. 10. 3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.3 51.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 14.3% 11.5% 4.1% 0.6% 3.8% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.9% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 40 47 52 54 51 47 42 41 32 39 35 28 19 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 43 48 50 47 43 38 37 28 35 31 24 15 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 42 44 41 37 32 31 22 29 25 18 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 32 34 31 27 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT