* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 38 47 51 52 49 53 52 46 41 37 33 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 38 47 51 52 49 53 52 46 41 37 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 27 27 27 29 32 34 38 43 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 12 13 20 34 38 42 36 21 30 11 14 20 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 2 -3 -2 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 274 258 258 271 269 235 218 204 210 204 217 252 274 274 264 275 304 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.4 22.8 20.3 17.8 15.4 13.7 12.6 12.0 10.3 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 128 127 126 122 113 94 82 74 71 71 71 70 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 109 108 108 111 109 102 84 74 68 67 68 68 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.7 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.7 -58.0 -59.0 -60.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 43 43 42 46 54 54 46 46 51 55 60 70 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 11 13 13 13 12 16 17 13 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -8 12 18 27 24 44 86 91 28 -4 -20 21 9 14 6 200 MB DIV -13 -8 4 8 17 69 62 73 51 23 20 24 67 45 7 1 -10 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 1 3 11 8 4 8 12 11 28 18 8 11 53 37 LAND (KM) 1615 1640 1633 1608 1591 1566 1577 1619 1676 1668 1591 1413 1221 1172 1138 1119 795 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.0 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.6 35.2 37.9 41.2 44.4 47.1 49.9 53.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 51.4 50.9 50.2 49.2 46.3 42.1 37.4 33.6 31.7 31.0 30.2 28.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 8 10 16 21 24 20 15 13 17 23 25 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 15 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 17. 20. 22. 21. 20. 18. 17. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 3. -4. -11. -17. -22. -25. -29. -33. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 5. 6. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 27. 31. 32. 30. 33. 32. 26. 21. 17. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.2 51.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 11.8% 9.7% 5.5% 1.0% 5.2% 2.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.9% 3.2% 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 38 47 51 52 49 53 52 46 41 37 33 34 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 36 45 49 50 47 51 50 44 39 35 31 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 31 40 44 45 42 46 45 39 34 30 26 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT