* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 52 47 47 40 33 34 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 52 47 47 40 33 34 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 42 40 39 41 43 47 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 12 14 17 33 41 42 32 25 21 36 34 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -6 -3 -4 -5 -5 -7 -7 0 6 1 5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 269 275 274 268 267 236 239 242 239 214 190 191 220 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.1 26.6 25.0 23.0 20.3 15.4 11.5 10.1 6.3 3.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 127 131 127 123 109 95 83 75 72 69 66 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 103 105 110 110 109 96 84 76 71 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -55.9 -56.4 -55.6 -55.1 -54.4 -53.0 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 41 41 44 47 49 52 54 54 48 49 61 66 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -28 -19 -14 3 25 31 37 73 95 86 57 116 169 129 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -4 4 -7 10 16 39 37 39 41 53 84 -1 -34 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -12 -20 0 27 13 29 61 95 50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1480 1471 1454 1452 1433 1414 1434 1524 1605 1593 1478 1377 1325 1035 898 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.5 33.7 33.8 34.1 34.9 36.3 38.3 41.0 44.4 49.1 55.4 61.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.3 51.8 51.2 50.4 49.5 46.8 42.9 38.4 34.7 32.7 32.8 35.0 37.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 15 20 20 19 20 28 33 26 19 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 5 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 2. -5. -11. -16. -20. -26. -36. -41. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -4. -7. -7. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 27. 29. 27. 22. 22. 15. 8. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.4 52.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 11.7% 10.5% 8.4% 1.3% 6.6% 2.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.1% 5.3% 2.8% 0.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 52 54 52 47 47 40 33 34 35 36 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 49 51 49 44 44 37 30 31 32 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 44 46 44 39 39 32 25 26 27 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 35 37 35 30 30 23 16 17 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT