* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 54 57 52 47 45 39 33 27 27 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 54 57 52 47 45 39 33 27 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 43 40 37 36 35 35 36 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 13 13 11 17 29 42 44 41 35 35 25 19 20 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 -2 -3 -8 -11 -7 -5 -14 2 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 264 273 286 283 267 249 245 249 260 269 273 285 265 225 256 280 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.0 24.1 22.6 21.5 18.9 17.2 14.8 13.9 13.0 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 125 130 127 125 109 101 92 85 78 74 71 71 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 103 104 108 109 110 97 90 81 75 71 69 68 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -56.4 -56.0 -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -55.9 -56.7 -56.7 -56.7 -57.5 -59.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 40 40 41 42 46 48 50 52 56 58 48 48 47 52 65 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 8 6 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -38 -27 -21 -8 31 42 40 61 71 71 51 -4 -5 -16 9 52 200 MB DIV -16 -7 -1 -3 -2 16 40 29 18 4 -11 7 32 17 29 46 61 700-850 TADV 6 3 -1 1 0 -2 -3 3 -8 3 13 10 24 33 38 48 41 LAND (KM) 1479 1459 1442 1427 1418 1404 1426 1520 1678 1845 1616 1456 1210 1043 931 932 931 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.2 34.8 35.8 37.4 39.2 41.1 43.1 45.7 48.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.0 51.3 50.6 49.7 47.5 44.1 39.6 35.2 31.4 29.0 27.7 26.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 12 18 20 18 15 13 15 17 19 23 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 4 7 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 3. -3. -11. -18. -24. -29. -34. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -2. -3. -2. -5. -9. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 24. 29. 32. 27. 22. 20. 14. 8. 2. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.4 52.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 7.7% 7.1% 3.7% 0.4% 4.2% 2.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 54 57 52 47 45 39 33 27 27 26 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 46 51 54 49 44 42 36 30 24 24 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 41 46 49 44 39 37 31 25 19 19 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 38 41 36 31 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT