* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 46 54 57 53 47 44 47 45 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 46 54 57 53 47 44 47 45 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 45 43 40 38 40 42 45 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 6 12 11 15 20 36 43 48 42 26 17 8 15 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -6 -7 -13 -14 -13 -6 -2 0 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 319 318 274 289 295 268 253 236 254 261 265 234 271 281 196 208 227 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.1 25.2 23.9 22.3 21.3 17.6 15.0 12.1 10.0 8.8 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 124 124 124 129 128 110 100 89 84 75 71 70 69 67 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 104 102 102 103 108 111 98 88 78 74 70 68 67 68 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.7 -56.0 -56.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 41 40 42 46 49 50 50 52 54 45 41 39 50 64 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 12 12 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -34 -34 -28 -23 -6 41 74 79 85 78 56 45 -15 -45 -3 9 200 MB DIV -14 -19 -7 -4 6 24 28 47 22 20 11 7 12 36 63 2 30 700-850 TADV 2 6 2 0 1 -2 -8 -30 -2 4 10 23 10 26 38 20 -8 LAND (KM) 1478 1416 1388 1375 1364 1367 1356 1418 1562 1720 1734 1574 1364 1280 1264 1148 1149 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.0 34.3 34.5 34.7 35.1 36.2 37.9 40.0 41.8 43.7 46.7 50.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 51.8 51.1 50.4 49.7 47.7 44.8 40.6 36.1 32.6 31.2 32.0 34.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 7 10 16 20 19 13 12 18 19 23 26 19 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 3 4 4 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. -0. -8. -16. -21. -25. -29. -30. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 32. 28. 22. 19. 22. 20. 20. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.4 52.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 5.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.5% 4.6% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 38 46 54 57 53 47 44 47 45 45 44 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 36 44 52 55 51 45 42 45 43 43 42 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 39 47 50 46 40 37 40 38 38 37 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 40 43 39 33 30 33 31 31 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT