* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 42 49 58 61 60 55 52 53 57 54 46 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 42 49 58 61 60 55 52 53 57 54 46 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 44 48 48 45 41 42 45 44 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 4 12 11 16 21 37 44 42 28 25 32 37 46 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -2 -7 -10 -10 -4 -7 -6 -4 -6 -12 SHEAR DIR 285 327 353 263 282 282 271 242 228 239 252 243 231 277 290 316 326 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.1 26.2 24.5 22.8 21.4 19.0 17.8 17.9 18.7 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 137 135 130 126 128 120 105 93 84 76 70 70 73 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 113 113 111 108 107 113 107 94 81 74 68 63 63 65 66 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -56.3 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.7 -57.6 -57.2 -57.3 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 44 43 42 45 43 43 48 51 53 43 43 48 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 8 14 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -65 -43 -40 -26 -9 21 37 33 41 59 56 32 13 -23 -23 -3 200 MB DIV -12 -9 -22 -9 -11 -8 19 30 31 28 16 34 23 8 -10 20 1 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 4 0 2 0 0 -7 -22 5 8 11 17 13 8 21 LAND (KM) 1605 1575 1567 1558 1551 1533 1503 1494 1535 1649 1780 1734 1651 1619 1578 1509 1438 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 33.1 33.7 34.7 36.4 38.8 41.2 43.4 45.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 53.4 52.7 52.1 51.5 50.1 48.2 45.1 40.8 36.0 32.2 30.5 30.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 6 11 17 22 22 15 11 9 4 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 17 14 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. -2. -10. -15. -19. -26. -32. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. 5. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 24. 33. 36. 35. 30. 27. 28. 33. 29. 21. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.9 54.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.2% 7.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 21.7% 25.5% 18.1% 3.0% 15.3% 8.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 11.0% 11.2% 8.6% 1.0% 5.1% 5.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 36 42 49 58 61 60 55 52 53 57 54 46 35 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 38 45 54 57 56 51 48 49 53 50 42 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 48 51 50 45 42 43 47 44 36 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 40 43 42 37 34 35 39 36 28 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT