* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 48 57 62 61 56 50 49 51 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 48 57 62 61 56 50 49 51 54 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 49 49 45 40 39 41 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 4 3 13 16 21 30 41 44 41 38 27 8 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -5 -2 0 -5 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -7 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 270 275 326 346 244 295 268 260 238 238 244 250 236 263 290 239 243 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 25.4 23.6 21.7 18.7 15.2 13.5 11.6 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 136 135 133 128 125 125 126 113 99 88 78 72 72 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 116 112 110 109 106 105 108 112 102 89 78 72 69 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.9 -56.4 -56.0 -55.9 -56.4 -56.2 -55.8 -55.3 -56.2 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 45 44 43 43 45 41 43 49 56 46 40 40 48 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 12 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -65 -59 -44 -35 -19 -2 32 18 6 39 36 30 9 8 -27 -41 200 MB DIV -4 -12 -6 -25 -8 -18 22 19 46 26 25 33 54 14 0 3 48 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 6 4 2 0 0 1 -11 -12 8 25 13 12 23 30 LAND (KM) 1620 1550 1526 1522 1512 1499 1486 1473 1506 1580 1698 1775 1581 1389 1300 1377 1450 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.4 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.3 33.6 34.2 35.2 37.1 39.9 42.8 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.1 53.6 53.0 52.4 51.1 49.6 47.3 43.6 39.0 34.3 31.2 30.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 13 19 23 21 17 19 20 24 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 15 13 7 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. -1. -8. -15. -22. -29. -30. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 23. 32. 37. 36. 31. 25. 24. 26. 29. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.6 54.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.2% 7.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 17.3% 21.3% 18.1% 2.6% 15.5% 8.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.3% 9.6% 8.5% 0.9% 5.2% 5.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 40 48 57 62 61 56 50 49 51 54 55 54 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 37 45 54 59 58 53 47 46 48 51 52 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 39 48 53 52 47 41 40 42 45 46 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 39 44 43 38 32 31 33 36 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT