* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 30 36 44 52 59 60 61 56 51 52 50 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 30 36 44 52 59 60 61 56 51 52 50 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 37 41 44 44 42 39 38 37 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 2 11 10 16 18 27 35 44 44 43 33 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 1 -4 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 318 231 259 331 61 274 285 282 268 228 229 229 227 219 234 233 213 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.1 27.0 27.0 25.3 23.2 19.8 15.7 13.9 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 140 139 138 137 137 134 126 126 127 111 97 83 74 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 122 115 114 113 113 113 112 108 110 113 100 87 76 70 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -55.9 -56.7 -57.2 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 48 47 44 45 44 41 41 50 54 61 62 48 38 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 7 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -70 -69 -71 -58 -36 -12 9 24 19 38 29 63 60 -7 -26 -41 200 MB DIV -14 2 -15 -4 -14 -7 -9 2 16 36 49 46 35 78 18 32 36 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 2 2 0 2 1 9 6 7 8 2 -1 21 24 30 LAND (KM) 1681 1586 1541 1536 1546 1567 1585 1589 1612 1652 1683 1693 1679 1650 1370 1086 979 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.7 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.5 32.6 32.8 33.3 34.6 37.1 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.5 53.9 52.6 51.4 50.0 47.7 44.7 41.1 37.2 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 5 5 6 5 5 7 11 14 19 21 22 23 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 16 17 18 19 11 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 885 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -5. -13. -21. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -6. -8. -4. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 19. 27. 34. 35. 36. 31. 26. 27. 25. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.7 55.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.3% 5.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.7% 7.6% 3.4% 0.5% 5.4% 8.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.1% 0.2% 1.8% 5.4% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 30 36 44 52 59 60 61 56 51 52 50 49 46 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 35 43 51 58 59 60 55 50 51 49 48 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 30 38 46 53 54 55 50 45 46 44 43 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 30 38 45 46 47 42 37 38 36 35 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT