* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 52 60 65 67 66 63 61 58 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 52 60 65 67 66 63 61 58 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 27 31 36 42 47 50 51 50 48 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 6 8 1 10 11 14 14 19 25 26 33 30 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 -2 -4 0 -5 0 -2 0 -4 0 1 0 4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 312 278 282 336 222 321 284 284 264 237 222 218 220 190 215 296 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.4 27.3 25.6 23.9 22.0 21.2 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 140 137 138 137 134 130 126 131 131 114 100 88 82 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 118 115 113 114 113 111 111 109 115 116 102 88 77 72 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 50 52 50 49 51 48 47 45 44 38 45 53 59 57 53 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -74 -76 -83 -79 -58 -27 -5 25 26 14 4 -3 23 25 8 -46 200 MB DIV -1 -11 0 -8 -11 -7 -20 6 7 10 38 56 45 37 31 12 5 700-850 TADV 7 6 5 1 3 5 3 2 7 10 13 18 5 -4 -2 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 1633 1690 1627 1594 1589 1637 1660 1681 1707 1745 1791 1840 1867 1926 1675 1520 1471 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.6 31.3 31.7 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.9 32.5 33.8 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.5 53.1 51.8 50.6 48.8 46.3 43.2 39.5 35.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 5 5 6 5 6 9 12 15 18 20 18 13 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 17 17 16 18 24 16 8 4 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. -0. -6. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 27. 35. 40. 42. 41. 38. 36. 33. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.5 55.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.0% 5.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.5% 6.3% 2.2% 0.3% 1.6% 2.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.5% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.5% 3.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 52 60 65 67 66 63 61 58 60 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 34 42 51 59 64 66 65 62 60 57 59 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 38 47 55 60 62 61 58 56 53 55 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 31 40 48 53 55 54 51 49 46 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT