* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 39 44 50 57 64 69 73 77 81 84 86 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 39 44 50 57 64 69 73 77 81 84 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 45 51 59 66 71 75 76 77 75 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 7 1 3 6 6 5 2 5 7 7 10 7 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 -1 3 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 -7 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 276 309 316 273 245 127 149 146 185 270 296 273 222 233 166 115 164 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 152 151 149 145 145 141 140 141 138 137 134 136 135 128 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 130 125 123 123 124 122 120 119 117 118 117 119 117 110 102 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 50 51 52 49 46 42 42 41 44 42 40 38 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -55 -55 -60 -69 -75 -57 -22 11 29 43 51 39 -12 -67 -97 -107 200 MB DIV -11 -11 -19 0 4 -17 -11 -20 -16 -23 6 19 12 -4 -12 -19 -19 700-850 TADV 2 1 6 8 2 6 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 3 0 5 -16 LAND (KM) 1410 1414 1437 1479 1512 1600 1651 1662 1653 1657 1690 1793 1984 2175 2122 2070 2127 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.4 28.2 27.1 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 57.0 57.6 57.8 57.7 56.5 54.9 53.5 52.7 52.1 51.6 50.5 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 5 4 7 9 8 5 4 4 7 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 31 27 25 20 30 21 18 19 18 20 14 20 21 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 51. 54. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 56.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.1% 8.7% 9.3% 14.1% Logistic: 1.7% 9.5% 8.7% 4.5% 0.9% 4.3% 4.0% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 5.4% 3.8% 2.0% 4.4% 4.5% 6.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 39 44 50 57 64 69 73 77 81 84 86 87 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 37 42 48 55 62 67 71 75 79 82 84 85 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 38 44 51 58 63 67 71 75 78 80 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 30 36 43 50 55 59 63 67 70 72 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT