* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 55 60 64 66 69 72 75 79 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 55 60 64 66 69 72 75 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 50 56 61 63 64 65 67 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 9 3 6 7 6 10 15 20 23 14 17 6 1 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 1 0 1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -7 -4 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 339 286 322 335 332 324 148 184 194 247 266 282 285 265 223 232 83 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 149 147 148 152 148 143 145 142 139 142 139 137 134 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 127 123 121 129 127 124 125 122 119 124 123 122 118 111 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -56.3 -56.4 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 48 48 50 51 49 45 40 41 42 46 47 47 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -27 -40 -39 -51 -54 -66 -58 -14 8 36 51 73 50 4 -33 -83 200 MB DIV -2 -21 -22 -6 14 -16 -14 -22 -23 -49 -20 -7 32 1 9 0 0 700-850 TADV 9 0 0 6 6 3 7 1 2 0 1 1 1 4 0 9 -3 LAND (KM) 1395 1364 1352 1359 1375 1423 1468 1480 1446 1404 1376 1408 1522 1702 1919 1940 1732 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.5 28.6 27.2 25.9 25.0 24.8 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.0 58.0 58.8 59.2 59.2 58.0 56.5 55.4 54.8 54.5 54.0 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 7 4 3 7 8 8 6 3 4 7 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 32 28 25 23 26 31 21 33 46 39 23 17 20 17 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. 45. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.8 55.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.4% 6.3% 6.0% 4.3% 7.8% 9.0% 13.5% Logistic: 1.2% 5.6% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 2.6% 3.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.4% 2.4% 1.5% 3.5% 4.3% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/25/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 55 60 64 66 69 72 75 79 80 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 36 41 48 53 58 62 64 67 70 73 77 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 37 44 49 54 58 60 63 66 69 73 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 29 36 41 46 50 52 55 58 61 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT