* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 53 61 70 75 81 82 82 81 83 85 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 53 61 70 75 81 82 82 81 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 52 60 67 71 70 66 63 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 7 11 9 3 0 5 9 10 18 23 23 17 18 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 2 0 8 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 329 338 290 310 322 273 267 189 199 232 258 279 284 277 272 234 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 147 150 149 146 148 149 144 146 139 133 132 137 137 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 131 131 127 119 124 129 126 127 120 115 115 122 122 119 118 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.7 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 51 47 48 46 48 48 50 49 44 41 38 39 41 44 47 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 -16 -35 -34 -49 -58 -63 -37 -8 11 33 33 37 15 -38 -73 200 MB DIV 14 12 -9 -28 -11 0 -24 -18 -33 -36 -33 -18 20 21 5 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 6 7 -2 1 12 2 5 1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 13 LAND (KM) 1438 1372 1348 1326 1322 1351 1392 1410 1387 1357 1332 1349 1438 1603 1792 2004 1919 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.7 27.4 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.1 28.3 26.9 25.4 24.2 23.8 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.9 57.0 58.0 58.8 59.3 58.7 57.2 55.9 55.0 54.5 54.1 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 9 7 1 5 9 9 7 5 3 5 8 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 24 28 32 32 25 27 31 23 42 40 28 20 16 18 15 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 23. 31. 40. 45. 51. 52. 52. 51. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 54.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.8% 5.5% 5.2% 3.7% 7.4% 9.1% 14.6% Logistic: 0.9% 3.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.5% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.3% 3.0% 3.9% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 53 61 70 75 81 82 82 81 83 85 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 37 43 51 59 68 73 79 80 80 79 81 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 40 48 56 65 70 76 77 77 76 78 80 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 41 49 58 63 69 70 70 69 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT