* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/25/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 49 58 66 74 79 84 95 103 103 101 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 49 58 66 74 79 84 95 103 103 101 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 36 43 51 60 69 75 79 83 88 86 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 6 3 7 2 7 2 6 10 12 16 12 5 5 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 307 331 344 289 301 234 298 208 300 283 290 295 296 318 249 255 264 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.5 28.4 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 152 151 146 149 153 151 146 148 141 135 144 144 130 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 135 133 130 120 123 131 131 127 127 120 118 129 132 120 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -56.0 -56.1 -56.4 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 49 49 52 53 51 48 45 40 40 43 45 46 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 3 4 6 7 9 11 12 14 19 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -12 -34 -49 -48 -64 -65 -44 8 49 60 66 56 4 -22 -71 200 MB DIV 7 9 10 -9 -20 7 -7 1 -30 -3 -46 0 10 23 14 17 2 700-850 TADV -3 5 8 0 1 4 5 3 0 1 0 1 5 1 2 -13 -4 LAND (KM) 1575 1499 1461 1446 1432 1456 1500 1556 1580 1588 1602 1632 1732 1929 2215 2178 2265 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.2 28.7 29.5 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.1 26.1 25.5 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 54.2 55.5 56.5 57.4 58.2 57.9 56.5 54.8 53.5 52.6 51.9 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 13 10 8 3 4 8 9 8 5 4 7 11 15 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 30 31 25 24 26 28 19 22 19 17 21 20 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 1. 7. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 19. 28. 36. 44. 49. 54. 65. 73. 73. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 52.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.8% 7.5% 7.1% 5.1% 8.8% 9.3% 14.1% Logistic: 0.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.8% 3.3% 2.5% 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/25/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 49 58 66 74 79 84 95 103 103 101 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 34 39 48 57 65 73 78 83 94 102 102 100 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 35 44 53 61 69 74 79 90 98 98 96 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 29 38 47 55 63 68 73 84 92 92 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT