* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 46 50 54 58 60 60 63 67 71 76 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 46 50 54 58 60 60 63 67 71 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 44 50 57 61 62 61 61 65 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 9 9 11 3 2 8 9 12 22 20 14 3 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 4 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 -4 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 290 316 335 343 323 17 162 197 206 226 249 262 288 293 273 305 74 SST (C) 27.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.5 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 150 148 148 147 141 139 139 145 148 144 134 130 131 130 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 144 138 134 131 121 114 116 127 133 129 119 115 117 116 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -55.3 -55.8 -56.4 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 50 49 48 47 50 50 47 43 41 42 46 47 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 16 5 -11 -28 -53 -54 -58 -35 5 6 26 26 12 -17 -56 200 MB DIV -6 0 13 1 -19 5 -11 -21 -8 -10 -33 -40 -14 -2 11 2 -3 700-850 TADV 10 -4 1 0 -7 6 0 0 0 4 3 3 3 3 1 5 -5 LAND (KM) 1637 1506 1408 1350 1316 1270 1264 1269 1266 1254 1269 1331 1445 1621 1835 2025 2184 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.2 26.9 27.5 28.3 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.4 24.8 23.6 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.3 53.2 55.0 56.4 57.6 59.6 60.5 60.4 59.0 57.2 55.6 54.2 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 16 13 11 7 2 4 10 12 10 7 7 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 26 27 26 30 25 16 16 36 34 47 26 19 16 15 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 28. 30. 30. 33. 37. 41. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.4 51.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.1% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.3% 5.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/25/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 46 50 54 58 60 60 63 67 71 76 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 36 41 45 49 53 57 59 59 62 66 70 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 37 41 45 49 53 55 55 58 62 66 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 34 38 42 46 48 48 51 55 59 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT