* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 31 35 39 45 52 61 71 76 82 86 89 87 91 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 31 35 39 45 52 61 71 76 82 86 89 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 27 28 30 33 39 48 58 67 73 74 71 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 17 12 10 3 6 1 5 8 13 18 22 15 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 3 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 286 301 317 330 344 335 35 328 261 260 241 258 275 291 301 288 325 SST (C) 27.4 27.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 139 153 149 150 147 141 138 141 147 147 142 133 129 130 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 145 137 134 128 118 112 120 129 132 125 117 113 114 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.4 -55.7 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 53 55 53 51 50 50 50 48 46 41 41 42 46 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 8 10 13 14 17 19 20 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 15 12 -11 -28 -35 -53 -46 -45 -3 -3 25 35 31 -16 -26 200 MB DIV -7 -6 1 8 0 -14 5 -21 6 -10 -13 -40 0 -22 6 -22 23 700-850 TADV 4 6 -8 -8 0 0 0 1 1 -1 2 -1 2 2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1801 1645 1537 1448 1412 1343 1312 1300 1302 1290 1268 1266 1275 1349 1446 1541 1559 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.0 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.5 29.0 29.1 28.8 27.7 26.1 24.6 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.4 51.5 53.3 55.0 56.3 58.6 60.1 60.6 59.9 58.3 56.7 55.5 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 18 16 13 9 5 0 7 10 11 8 6 5 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 25 23 26 29 18 17 19 33 32 50 29 19 24 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 24 CX,CY: -20/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 22. 31. 41. 46. 52. 56. 59. 57. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 49.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 7.8% 5.9% 5.8% 4.1% 7.5% 7.6% 10.9% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 31 35 39 45 52 61 71 76 82 86 89 87 91 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 35 39 45 52 61 71 76 82 86 89 87 91 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 31 35 41 48 57 67 72 78 82 85 83 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 28 34 41 50 60 65 71 75 78 76 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT